My personal investing journal

How I invest my own money, shared every month

Tyler Marshall

I invest systematically instead of reacting to headlines or fear, shifting between stocks, gold, commodities, Bitcoin, and defensive funds at the end of each month. The aim is to match or exceed a traditional 80/20 stock-and-bond portfolio's returns over time while sidestepping the worst of major bear markets. I share my results and explain my thinking.

A wide range of assets

Built for different market environments

Stocks

Nasdaq-100Russell 2000JapanEmerging markets

Real assets and crypto

Broad commoditiesGoldBitcoin

Defensive

T-billsLong-term TreasuriesDefensive equity

Live since Jan 2, 2024
10 ETFs ranked monthly
4 held at a time
0.61 correlation to the S&P 500

How it works

An all-weather portfolio that plays offense and defense

Traditional portfolios count on bonds for defense, and in 2022 stocks and bonds fell together. Mine adds gold, commodities, Bitcoin, and defensive funds, then holds the four with the strongest momentum. In the spring 2025 tariff selloff, T-bills took over more than 90% of my portfolio. The 80/20 fell about 13%, and my strategy never fell more than about 6%.

Read the full method on the About page →

Offense

Follows momentum, not forecasts

Each month I rank ten ETFs by momentum and hold what's rising, not what I predict will rise.

Only the top four

Four of the ten make the portfolio. The other six wait until their momentum improves.

Defense

Balanced by risk

Less volatile funds get bigger slices, so each of the four adds about the same risk.

Built-in off-ramp

T-bills, which work like cash, compete in the same ranking. When stocks stop rising, they can take over most of the portfolio.

Track record

My live results

These are my own account's returns, not a backtest. I report every period, good and bad.

Growth of $10,000 since going live

Asymmetric Edge uses my account's time-weighted returns. Benchmarks are 80/20 (AOA) and S&P 500 (SPY), from Yahoo Finance adjusted closes with dividends reinvested. Before taxes and fees. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Returns by period

Period	Mine	80/20	S&P 500

Annualized is the yearly rate that compounds to the full return since 1/2/2024. Largest decline is the biggest fall from a high since 1/2/2024. 80/20 is 80% stocks and 20% bonds (AOA).

Correlation with the S&P 500

An 80/20 portfolio mostly moves with the stock market. Mine is much less tied to it. A correlation of 1 means moving in lockstep, and 0 means no connection at all.

80/20 portfolio

Asymmetric Edge

Monthly returns, since 1/2/2024, the full period my strategy has been live. Asymmetric Edge uses my account's returns, reconciled to Fidelity. Updated every Sunday.

Tyler Marshall smiling, with red rocks behind him

Who I am

I'm Tyler Marshall

I spent about 15 years in business, sales, and finance before becoming a counselor. Both careers taught me the same thing: anxiety is the worst headspace for making decisions.

So I built a rules-based strategy, backed by years of research, that keeps emotion out of my investing.

This newsletter shares my strategy's performance, how I'm thinking about markets, and what I've learned over the years, mistakes included. I also explore the psychological side of investing, where my two careers meet.

What you get