A personal investing journal, live since January 2024
How I invest my own money, shared every month
Each month I rank ten ETFs on momentum and hold the four strongest. The aim is to match or exceed a balanced portfolio's returns with smaller declines. I share what I hold and why, so you can watch it play out.
The ten ETFs I rank each month
4 held at a timeStocks
Real assets and crypto
Defensive
When stocks and Bitcoin lose momentum, defensive funds can take their place. Paid members see the exact four and their weights at each month-end rebalance.
Jan 2, 2024
Live with my own money since
10 ETFs
The same list, ranked every month
4 holdings
Rebalanced once a month
0.61 correlation
To the S&P 500 since 2024
How it works
An all-weather portfolio that plays offense and defense
Traditional portfolios count on bonds for defense, which works best when inflation is low. In 2022, stocks and bonds fell together. My strategy adds gold, commodities, Bitcoin, and defensive funds to the lineup, then holds the four with the strongest momentum. That wider lineup is how my portfolio caught gold's record 2025 run, a trend a stock-and-bond portfolio had no way to ride.
The ten ETFs I rank each month
4 held at a timeStocks
Real assets and crypto
Defensive
When stocks and Bitcoin lose momentum, defensive funds can take their place. Paid members see the exact four and their weights at each month-end rebalance.
Rank on momentum
At each month's end, I rank the same ten ETFs by momentum, blending short- and longer-term trends.
Hold the top four
The four strongest make the portfolio. The other six sit out until their momentum improves.
Risk parity sizing
Positions are weighted by risk contribution, which can help reduce portfolio volatility.
Built-in off-ramp
T-bills, which work like cash, compete in the same ranking. In spring 2025, they sheltered most of my portfolio from the tariff selloff.
Track record
My live results
These are my own account's returns, not a backtest. I report every period, good and bad.
Traditional balanced portfolios mostly move with the stock market. Mine is far less tied to it. A correlation of 1 means moving in lockstep, and 0 means no connection at all.
Correlation with the S&P 500
Monthly returns, since 1/2/2024, the full period my strategy has been live. Asymmetric Edge uses my account's returns, reconciled to Fidelity. 80/20 (AOA), 60/40 (AOR), and S&P 500 (SPY) are Yahoo Finance adjusted closes with dividends reinvested. Updated every Sunday.
Growth of $10,000 since going live
Asymmetric Edge uses my account's time-weighted returns. Benchmarks are 80/20 (AOA), 60/40 (AOR), and S&P 500 (SPY), from Yahoo Finance adjusted closes with dividends reinvested. Before taxes and fees. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Returns by period
| Period | Mine | 80/20 | S&P 500 |
|---|
Largest decline is the biggest fall from a high since 1/2/2024.
Who I am
I'm Tyler Marshall
I spent about 15 years in business, sales, and finance before becoming a counselor. Both careers taught me the same thing: anxiety is the worst headspace for making decisions.
So I built a rules-based strategy, backed by years of research, that keeps emotion out of my investing.
This newsletter shares my strategy's performance, how I'm thinking about markets, and what I've learned over the years, mistakes included. I also explore the psychological side of investing, where my two careers meet.
What you get
Read along free, or see what I hold each month
Free
$0
- Mid-month deep dives and portfolio results
- The public half of each monthly update
Core
$29 /month, or $290/year
- Everything in Free
- My exact allocations for every month
- Timely notes on every change and why
- Special updates after major market events
- The full archive of monthly updates
New here? Start with these
The best way to understand the strategy
Deep Dive
No Bonds, No U.S. Stocks, and a Likely Rate Hike Tomorrow
Why my portfolio held no bonds and no U.S. stocks heading into a Fed meeting, and the four market environments that decide which assets lead.
Deep Dive
If the AI Bubble Bursts, This Is How My Strategy Would Adapt
How much of my portfolio rides on AI, and how my strategy would adapt if the AI trade breaks down.
Special Update
My Strategy's First Correction: Down 11% From Its High
My strategy's largest decline since going live, how it compares with my live record and a test back to 1995, and how my next rebalance works.
Follow my portfolio through every market
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